Over the past year or so, there have been a lot of meltdowns.  15 months ago, my husband and I were planning a move, and shopping for a new home.  We were astounded at the number of new homes, particularly expensive ones, which had been started only recently, even after over a year of rockiness (or free fall)  in the national housing market.  We had been funding a professional flipper for nearly a year and a half, and had discussed with him many times the difficulties nationally.  He kept a close eye on the market dynamics, lead time to sell a property and other variables and finally said that he felt the opportunity to profitably flip a home was over (at least for the time being).  He never lost money, and he always made money for us.  It is clear that this was pretty unusual.

At the same time that this young man so accurately read the market, other developers were beginning new construction, in the teeth of an impending housing downturn.  I kept saying to my husband "Don't these people read the Wall Street Journal".  Of course he laughed and told me that, clearly, they didn't!  Watching the national markets provided a clear view of what was coming our way.

I estimate that Utah's economy is usually 1 to 2 years behind the rest of the country in these "big trends" - we're slower to rise in the good times (and don't usually bubble as high), and we often stay buoyant longer than other parts of the nation.  However, "the trend is your friend", and simply watching the trend in the national markets can save Utah businesses huge headaches. 

Another friend of ours was running an etailler in the "affordable luxury" market.  At the same time that we were seeing high end houses in foreclosure, he was gearing up for a blockbuster holiday season, investing in a LOT of expensive inventory.  Again, the trend should have been his friend and he should have been a little more conservative in stocking up.  Now, he has a lot of inventory on hand, while sales have dropped significantly, making for rocky sailing.

It's hard in Utah to get a feel for the national trends just by "talking to people".  We're small enough and different enough that this doesn't work.  A daily scan of the Wall Street Journal is a quick and cost effective way to get a strong national picture of the trends affecting your business.